Global Data Pod
A weekly Business podcast
Global Data Pod
Episodes
Episodes of Global Data Pod
Mark All
A number of recent developments serve to reduce downside growth risks globally. In part this reflects strong US demand indicators and substantial front-loaded China policy supports, which serve to materially raise our current quarter global gro
Katie, Nicolaie and Steven discuss the latest economic trends in the EM Edge. Inflation for most EM Edge economies, outside of Africa, have converged to their pre-pandemic norms. The direction from here is upward, in our view. While we are not
The improving US activity data has trimmed the downside tail, reinforcing views for a Goldilocks-type soft-landing. However, with core inflation running at a pace little different from a year-ago (around 3%ar), more respect for a high-for-long
Haibin Zhu and Nora Szentivanyi discuss China’s latest policy easing measures and what to expect in coming weeks and months. Three aspects of the upcoming fiscal announcement will be important to watch: magnitude, composition and forward guidan
A much better than expected US payroll report, along with a quick end to the port strike, shift the risk distribution away from recession. Whether this adds probability to the Goldilocks outturn or the boil-the-frog scenario we have warned abou
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the Sept jobs report.This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024.This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clie
Growth was relatively strong across the EM Edge economies in 2Q. Nicolaie, Steven and Katie debate the influence that diverging growth risks in US, China and Europe has for growth in the Edge. While the US influence may predominate, fiscal and
A set of divergences in the global economy raise tail risks to the expansion. While we see numerous reasons for a soft-landing, next week’s PMIs and US labor market news are likely to exacerbate the tensions. Despite this, US growth is robust w
Nora Szentivanyi and Greg Fuzesi discuss their takeaways from the August CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global headline inflation stepped down to 2.9%oya, helped by lower
Bruce Kasman and Jay Barry discuss how the Fed met their expectations for a 50bp rate cut as it shifted its assessment of risk while not materially adjusting its growth or inflation forecasts. Markets showed a continued steepening in the US cur
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how the Fed will take center stage in a week marked by a number of significant central bank decisions that don’t revolve around a common theme. We anticipate a 50bp rate cut from the FOMC as it re
SpeakersNicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy ResearchKatherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Steven Palacio, EM, Economics ResearchEM Edge economies have seen improvements in their fundamentals with only lim
The latest PMIs reinforce the resilience of the global expansion, even if still imbalanced across sectors. While the US has led with the strongest recovery, the more material moderation in the labor markets of late shifts the risk skew onto gro
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the August jobs report.This podcast was recorded on September 6, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutiona
Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the July CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global inflation remains sticky at 3% with
Recession risks faded a bit this week as a stronger US consumer and a dip in initial claims combined with a constructive CPI report that gives a green light to Fed easing. At the same time, global sectoral and geographic imbalances abound, as a
Haibin Zhu joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss China’s economic and policy outlook amid mounting downside risks to growth. Following the latest set of disappointing activity data we lowered our full-year 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.6%––below th
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how it has been a volatile week in financial markets, with tension between what we assess to be a modest rise in downside growth risks and a more significant shift in the near-term prospects for F
Sajjid Chinoy and Seok Gil Park join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the implications of a more front-loaded Fed easing path for EM Asia. Soft core inflation in EM Asia ordinarily would call for a reversal of some of the monetary policy tightening
The week started and ended soft. On Monday, the global manufacturing PMI tumbled in July, erasing this year’s gain and pointing to a stall in global industry. On Friday, the July US payroll report added fuel to the concern that the US was slipp
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the July jobs report.Speakers:Michael Feroli, Chief US EconomistSamantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
A disappointing set of flash PMIs challenge our call for a rotation toward better manufacturing relative to services and toward an improved Europe relative to the US. Noisy signals, solid fundamentals (with another strong US payrolls expected n
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the latest global inflation report.Speakers:Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global EconomistSamantha Azzarello, Head of Content StrategyThis podc
Ravi Balakrishnan, Chief European Economist, and Alexander Wise, from Long-term Strategy discuss a new special report on debt challenges in the Euro area.This podcast was recorded on July 24, 2024. This communication is provided for informat
The global expansion is moderating but we maintain conviction that the underlying supports are strong. Solid US retail sales and manufacturing reports reinforce the lift underway in global industry. At the same time, we are more cautious on the
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